Audience & Timing

+-----------------------------------------------------------+
|                    AUDIENCE & TIMING                       |
+-----------------------------------------------------------+
|                                                           |
|   "Success isn't always about the design"                 |
|   "It's about the TIMING"                                 |
|                                                           |
|   No bad time to launch, only wrong type for the moment   |
|                                                           |
+-----------------------------------------------------------+

1/ Bull Markets Are Bad for Schemes?

This notion is false, and often it's the exact opposite.

Example: The logic of traditional Ponzi circles dominating crypto that started in 2018 came to an abrupt halt in 2021. The main reason wasn't just that authorities learned to crack down—it's that in a raging bull market, even 300% APY schemes pale in comparison to daily pumping secondary markets.

All ground-pushed schemes struggle in bull markets

2/ The Timing Principle

There's no wrong time to launch, only wrong schemes for the moment:

• Ground-pushed dividend Ponzis can't coexist with explosive bull markets
• Bear markets struggle to launch large split Ponzis

What's the main factor determining whether a certain scheme is suitable for a specific time period?

3/ Two Expectations

From the user perspective, the first consideration when entering a project is risk-reward ratio. Only two expectations matter:

4/ Liquidity Expectation

Liquidity means the possibility of extracting your principal and profits from the scheme.

Bull Market: Solana volume approaching 1B, any launch with hundreds of thousands flows in
            Don't care too much about FDV, volume under 1M means it hasn't taken off

Bear Market: Completely different expectation standards

Since it's a scheme, it's capital mismatch—impossible for all capital to exit simultaneously:

• Low liquidity → Can't run fast enough means can't cash out
• Excessive liquidity → Hard to pump multiples (if returns come from secondary market appreciation)

5/ Market Beta Expectation

Refers to expectations caused by nominal yields or appreciation of similar schemes:

• Lending/LSD yield methods in mutual-aid and dividend Ponzis
• Nominal appreciation of new Binance listings, latest memecoins/NFTs

Market Beta determines your scheme's attractiveness to retail

When most participants ape into your scheme:

1. First compare and judge potential returns/appreciation
2. Then look back at liquidity to assess risk (many don't look—this distinguishes new from seasoned retail)

6/ Scheme Type & Liquidity

Each scheme type has its own liquidity range, from low to high:

Dividend Ponzi < Split Ponzi < Mutual-Aid Ponzi

In terms of nominal return range (excluding dynamic recruiting):

Dividend Ponzi < Mutual-Aid Ponzi ≤ Split Ponzi

7/ Trading Mechanism & Liquidity

From liquidity expectation alone:

8/ Core Principle

Launch Decision Principle:

9/ Case Study: Inscription Takeoff

September 2023:

• ETH NFT top 10 daily volume only $300K
• Dextool top 10 memecoin volume only ~$1M

At this point, order-matching inscriptions could launch:

• Very low liquidity allows upward orders to pump tens of multiples attracting attention
• No need to prepare floor-sweeping or upfront liquidity costs

But launching CEX dividend Ponzis simultaneously wasn't suitable — Even listing on Mexc required guaranteeing liquidity levels

10/ Case Study: Death of Bull Market Dividend Ponzis

When any random coin pumps 10% daily, your 200% APY dividend Ponzi with no instant liquidity has zero appeal.

But in bear markets:

• Fed interest at 4.5%
• On-chain DeFi generally only 4% or lower
• Then comes 100% APY—people will actually follow

See 2018's Plustoken and the 4 major wallets—there wasn't even DeFi back then

11/ Why Does This Happen?

Politically correct explanation: Markets have inherent cycles, macro (tightening or expansion) or industry cycles (like halving) cause liquidity and yield to change accordingly. Cycles inevitably reveal patterns.

Politically incorrect explanation:

Bear Market Strategy:
└── Impossible to create large liquidity (selling pressure too high)
└── Can only use low-liquidity assets to pump multiples for market attention
└── Dump on highs, exit what you can

Bull Market Strategy:
└── Very easy to find liquidity
└── Profit maximization requires exit maximization
└── High multiples no longer top priority
└── Find highest liquidity markets to distribute

12/ Reflective Cases

Now match these up, recall:

13/ How to Judge Two Expectations?

Besides on-chain and exchange data, three field-tested methods:

1. Retail Sentiment Monitoring Find low-liquidity targets, see if retail praises multiples more or complains about inability to sell

2. VC Bro Sentiment Monitoring

• Constantly outputting narrative content → Related market liquidity is good
• Starting to question narratives → Market liquidity weakening

3. Influencer Traffic Monitoring

• Memecoin influencer engagement high → Market liquidity good
• Educational/"deep analysis" influencer traffic 10K+ → Liquidity poor

Core Formula

Launch Timing = f(Scheme Liquidity Requirement, Current Market Liquidity, Scheme Yield, Current Market Beta)

Suitable Launch Conditions:
├── Scheme liquidity requirement ≤ Market liquidity
├── Scheme nominal return ≥ Market Beta
└── Trading mechanism matches market

Next: Industrialization Theory