Mass Admission
Mass Adoption is bullshit, Mass Admission is the truth
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| MASS ADMISSION |
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| Mass Adoption is bullshit |
| Mass Admission is the truth |
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+-----------------------------------------------------------+The Mass Adoption Fallacy
Every time the market is down, blame falls on not attracting Web2 users, no new money coming in.
This logic is like "African kids will starve because you waste food in China" - emotionally compelling but logically absurd
Understanding Who is "Mass"
"The masses" are a group of different but classifiable individuals.
Crypto's Core Value
Permissionlessness - Not something most people on Earth actually need:
| Scenario | Permissionless Demand |
|---|---|
| Banks | Won't let you freely open accounts/pay, but you insist |
| Governments | Won't let you invest/speculate/gamble, but you insist |
| Big companies | Restrict speech, but you insist |
"Merchant" Characteristics
Those with demand are definitely not the majority
Most people are livestock trained by the system
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Those who understand arbitrage, anti-establishment "social marginals"
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Not necessarily actual businesspeople, may not even have money
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But destined to be a minority, otherwise rule cannot be maintained
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Primary goal is making moneyWe Might Already Be Mass Adopted
Data Analysis
UN data: Global adult average annual income $23,000
Assume 10% enters crypto
8 billion people globally = $18.4 trillion
Binance March 2024 spot volume: $1.12 trillion
Annual spot alone over $13 trillion
Still ~30% roomAnother perspective:
- Global top 10% earners account for 52% of total income, ~800 million people
- crypto.com says 2023 global crypto users: 520 million
- Still ~30% room
It's bizarre if someone with secondary education hasn't heard of Bitcoin in 2024
You still want to "bring the show to the villages" to Mass Adopt Web2 users?
Existing Market Isn't the Problem, High-Frequency Users Are
Gambling Industry Insights
Theoretically all wealthy people globally are the market (wealthy have gambling instincts)
Growth follows global inflation
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If performance is bad, it's not because no new users
It's because existing users bet less, bet less frequentlyTwo Main Casino Players
| Type | Characteristics |
|---|---|
| High-frequency players | Master one or two games, addicted, go daily |
| VIP rooms | Whales, 80% of casino revenue |
Crypto growth essence = Process of cultivating high-frequency users and whales
Mass Admission vs Mass Adoption
Casino Logic
How many people understand slot machine scoring?
How many know how to play baccarat?
How many can play Texas Hold'em?
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Learning these costs more than learning crypto:
├── Complex rules
├── Gambling courage
└── Entry barriers (membership, chip exchange)
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Why don't casinos have adoption problems?
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Provide irreplaceable solution to irreplaceable demand (gambling)Admission Thinking
You come to win money
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To win money in a casino, you learn the casino's rules
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The casino admits you to gamble (Admission)
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Not catering to your other daily identity needs (Adoption)Hard to imagine casino saying "I want to build gambler social network, make them spend at whisky bar instead of coming to win money"
Crypto's Mass Admission
Clear: Let them come to make money!
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Admit the world's "merchants" to try winning money here
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Condition is learning Crypto's rules
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Ways to win money: Games involving capital flows (trading, staking, lending)Elimination Mechanism
Those who don't play by rules (ignore Three-Ponzi Theory, just follow KOLs)
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Those too bad at playing who go bankrupt
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Eliminated
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Survivors who master the game = High-frequency users with muscle memory
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Best performers get VIP room accessDevelopment Direction
Get more people to participate in trials faster, with more diverse exciting trials:
- Larger total bets
- More sustained gaming
- Provide status symbols (casinos sell watches and luxury goods, Crypto has NFTs?)
This isn't just about project selection, it includes growth strategy
Core Formulas
Mass Adoption Problem:
├── Most people don't need permissionlessness
├── Market may already be near actual TAM ceiling
└── Existing market isn't the problem
Mass Admission Logic:
├── Clear: Let them come to make money
├── Condition: Learn Crypto rules
├── Eliminate: Those who don't follow rules/play too poorly
└── Goal: Cultivate high-frequency users and whales
Thinking Framework:
├── Why meme/inscriptions/Solana are hot
├── Not ETH ecosystem/VC coins/RWA
└── What's scarce is devs, not "users"Mass Admission is my core logic for evaluating and building projects, even the first logic I consider