Open Rug
A methodological framework for understanding crypto Ponzi schemes — from Ponzi taxonomy to industrialized operations
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| *** OPEN RUG THEORY *** |
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| "Know the Blade, Know When to Fold." |
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+------------------------------------------------------------------+Know the Blade, Know When to Fold
Though Ponzi schemes appear dazzling and varied, they fundamentally consist of only three models: Dividend, Mutual-Aid, and Split. All Ponzi schemes are combinations of these three models.
One of crypto's greatest values is the first-time democratization and tradeability of Ponzi schemes. Anyone can launch one, and you can even trade the schemes themselves.
Setting aside external factors, every crypto bull market is driven by fundamental innovations in Ponzi schemes. By studying Ponzi schemes, you can identify first-principles requirements for Ponzi innovation and find mega-trend level alpha in the market.
Let's dive in 🧵
Three-Ponzi Theory Overview
| Dividend | Mutual-Aid | Split | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mechanism | One-time capital investment, linear dividends over time | A pays B, B pays C, forming cash flow mismatch | Multiply asset quantity per unit capital, attracting subsequent funds |
| Forms Capital Pool | ✅ | ❌ | ✅ |
| Free Entry/Exit | ❌ | ❌ | ✅ |
| Fixed Returns | ❌ | ✅ | ❌ |
| Risk Appetite | Low | Medium | High |
| Analogy | Debt investor | High-interest lender | Equity investor |
Collapse Formula Quick Reference
profit(Dividend) = Total deposits - Total fixed dividends
profit(Mutual-Aid) = Total funds in mutual-aid state × % insider accounts ratio
profit(Split) = Total profit from project team dumping
⚠️ Always remember project teams are here to make money, calculate Profit using max values not zeroCollapse Conditions:
- Dividend: New deposits < Fixed interest payments → Close platform and take remaining principal
- Mutual-Aid: Global debt > Liquidatable assets + External liquidity → Stop mutual-aid, insiders exit
- Split: New buy orders < Split demand OR Existing holders mass dump → Market cap profit realization
Core Principles
| About | Principle |
|---|---|
| Ponzi | "Though Ponzi schemes appear dazzling, they fundamentally consist of only three models" |
| Audience | "Audience determines demand, demand drives supply" |
| Timing | "There's no wrong time to launch, only wrong schemes for specific times" |
| Arbitrage | "Unless you're Steve Jobs or Jensen Huang, all you can do is arbitrage" |
| Tokens | "Protect liquidity, not price; manage volatility structure, not trends" |
| Narrative | "The most valuable narratives must attract attention events with viral spread potential that appeal to global average IQ" |
| Politics | "Getting listed on Binance is the first principle" |
Start Learning
Don't Be the Last Bagholder
Arm yourself with Open Rug Theory. Survive the dark forest.
Source: TheCryptoSkanda's Open Rug Series
"Are kings, dukes, generals, and ministers born to their stations!"