Three-Ponzi Theory Overview
Ponzi schemes may seem bewildering, but fundamentally there are only three models
+----------------------------------------------------------+
| THREE-PONZI THEORY |
| |
| [Dividend] -----> [Mutual Aid] -----> [Split] |
| | | | |
| v v v |
| Low Risk Mid Risk High Risk |
| Creditor Lender Equity |
+----------------------------------------------------------+1/ What is Three-Ponzi Theory
Ponzi schemes may seem bewildering, but fundamentally there are only three models: Dividend, Mutual-Aid, and Split. All Ponzi schemes are combinations of these three models.
The analytical method based on this logic is called the "Three-Ponzi Model." The three types can appear independently or in combination, each with its own pros and cons, corresponding to specific launch, operation, and collapse logic.
The Three-Ponzi Model is also the primary methodology for evaluating investment targets.
2/ Three Basic Types
Traditional Definitions:
| Type | Definition | Revenue Source |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend | One-time lump sum investment, linear dividends over time | Later deposits distributed to earlier investors |
| Mutual-Aid | A pays B, B pays C, C pays A forming mismatched cash flows, per-transaction settlement | Interest spread from fund maturity mismatch |
| Split | Continuously splitting one asset into new assets, attracting new capital through lower-priced new assets | Market cap realization after asset appreciation |
3/ Launch Logic (Design Characteristics)
Does it form a capital pool? Allow free entry/exit? Promise fixed returns?
Dividend: YES; NO; NO
Mutual-Aid: NO; Mostly NO; YES
Split: YES; YES; NOThe essence of any Ponzi is achieving low-cost capital aggregation and creating mismatch. Profits depend on how much capital and how long you can distribute.
Therefore the main vulnerabilities are in three stages:
| Stage | Meaning | Key Question |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | Capital Pool | Does entering require locking liquidity or upfront payment |
| Exit | Free Entry/Exit | Can principal freely enter and exit |
| Bubble | Returns/Payout Ratio | Are fixed returns promised |
4/ Collapse Logic
| Type | Collapse Condition | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend | New deposits < Fixed return interest | Stop pool withdrawals, close shop (profit from remaining principal) |
| Mutual-Aid | Mutual-aid funds < Fixed return interest | Stop mutual-aid circulation, insider accounts exit |
| Split | No new liquidity to take over new split assets | Project team realizes market cap profits |
5/ Operator Profit Formula
profit(Dividend) = Total deposits - Total fixed dividends
profit(Mutual-Aid) = Total funds in mutual-aid state × % insider account ratio
profit(Split) = Project team's total selling profits⚠️ Always remember the project team is here to make money. When calculating Profit, take the maximum value, not zero
6/ Three Operating Elements
From the operator's perspective, operational considerations are:
- Reserves — Deposits used for paying withdrawals and interest
- Payout Ratio — Too low nobody plays, too high easy collapse
- Market Costs — Expenses to drive deposits
The operator's task is to balance these three points and maximize profit
7/ User Demand Evolution
As the sophistication of Ponzi participants increases, traditional schemes no longer satisfy people's growing Ponzi demands:
- ❌ Dislike entry fees, front-loaded interest cuts, and long lockups
- ❌ Demand free capital movement to prevent rugs
- ✅ High returns
This completely contradicts operator interests and operational needs, but competition is fierce. Operators must trade off among the three. The goal isn't following demand, but making the market accept it.
8/ Audience and Risk Preference
From the audience perspective, from Dividend to Mutual-Aid to Split represents continuously increasing risk preference:
| Type | Risk Preference | Traditional Finance Analogy |
|---|---|---|
| Dividend | Low | Creditor |
| Mutual-Aid | Medium | Loan Shark |
| Split | High | Equity Investor |
Core Terminology Quick Reference
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Fund Mismatch | Temporal/amount inequality between deposits and withdrawals, fundamental source of Ponzi profits |
| Payout Ratio | Proportion of returns distributed to users from total deposits |
| Reserves | Funds used for paying user withdrawals and interest |
| Insider Accounts | Hidden accounts controlled by operators for early positioning and profits |
| Beta | Average return/gain rate of the overall market or similar projects |
| Chip Structure | Distribution of tokens/assets among different holders |
Next: Dividend Ponzi Explained