Cycle Review 2024
Reflecting on Three-Ponzi, understanding audiences, exploring decentralized collusion
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| REVIEW 2024 |
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| Reflection on Three-Ponzi Theory |
| Understanding the new audience |
| Exploring decentralized collusion |
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+-----------------------------------------------------------+Three-Ponzi Theory's Premises
Three-Ponzi Theory and most Open Rug practices are based on 2013-2021 network MLM era, where scheme audiences were mainly born 1960s-1980s.
Characteristics of This Generation
Received Chinese-style livestock education and training
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Caught China's economic rise
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Blind confidence, love showing off, worship authority, limited thinking abilityJust find a "prestigious" narrative and right-angle PUA, relatively easy to make them pay
Young People Are Different
New Generation Characteristics
Livestock education even more intense
BUT
Access information faster
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Hit China's economic decline
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Disillusionment and rebellion against existing systemAudience Determines Demand
Audience determines demand
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Demand leads to supply
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Three-Ponzi schemes are "results" of audience demand
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Can use Three-Ponzi to analyze and design
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But cannot use it to "sense the market early"
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Audience theory canDeath of Direct Sales and Hierarchical Systems
Global Direct Sales Market Shrinking
Formally shrinking since 2022, with 2023 seeing rapid decline in China, Korea, Japan - the three direct sales giants.
Impact on Scheme Circles:
| Impact | Description |
|---|---|
| Team pipeline shrinking | Fewer teams to develop in future |
| Traffic logic replacing | Live streaming and social commerce replacing hierarchical systems |
New Generation's Approach
Don't buy what 1960s-1990s generation is selling
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Better at generating traffic, more naked CX
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Before: Team leaders sold dreams to build performance
Now: Need things that work faster to build traffic and influence
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Rushing dog coin communities or KOL-led squads
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Hierarchical commission logic being phased outDecentralized Collusion
Success in Low Liquidity Markets
Digital collectibles, NFTs, inscriptions, Memecoin cabals form not just because of a specific "house."
Interest Group Composition:
- Project teams
- Market makers
- KOLs
- Early discoverers and promoters
- Early traders
All part of the cabal, even if they don't know each other. I call this decentralized collusion
The Real Questions
More important than analyzing market mechanisms, these questions need answering:
| Question | Significance |
|---|---|
| Who would be motivated to participate | Identify participant profiles |
| How do they find the market and all-in | Understand entry path |
| Why would they actively CX | Understand propagation motivation |
| How to build advantage and know you have it | Understand competitive source |
What Is Cult Really
Is cult really following the project?
or
Is cult about people, with "cult" projects just being temporary rituals?
Is the cult leader SPX6900, or Murad himself?New Generation Sickle's Self-Cultivation
Ponzi Is a People Business
Audience determines design, design requires team configuration.
Problems Traditional Configuration Solves
Technology, trust, customer acquisition, market cap, exit
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Execution is relatively abstract
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Most projects can only partially emphasize and streamline
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Build "professional ragtag crews" in key areasNew Questions
Based on new audience understanding:
- How to configure teams?
- What goals to set?
- How to manage results?
Core Formulas
Three-Ponzi Theory Premises:
├── Audience: 1960s-1990s, blind confidence, worship authority
└── Era: 2013-2021 network MLM era
Era Changes:
├── Young people access information faster
├── Disillusioned and rebellious against system
├── Direct sales hierarchy dying
└── Traffic logic replacing team logic
Decentralized Collusion:
├── Cabal members may not know each other
├── Project + MM + KOL + Early traders
└── Cult is about people, projects are just rituals
New Questions:
├── Who would be motivated to participate?
├── How do they find the market?
├── Why would they actively CX?
└── How to build and know your advantage?Three-Ponzi Theory successfully predicted many trends, but times have changed
To find new ways to scheme, we need new frameworks